To look at where advertising dollars in the region will be heading in 2008, we need to take a look at some of the trends that are shaping our industry right now.
The good news is that the overriding trend in Middle East advertising is steady growth.
The bad news, according to the trade journals anyway, is that advertising is in a period of crisis brought about by the rise of digital media, which has thrown the industry into confusion.
After a generation of catering to passive, receptive audiences, we now face the end of interruption and the age of interaction.
CRISIS, WHAT CRISIS? But what does all this have to do with where advertising dollars will go in 2008? The short answer is: Not much. The fact is, while digital media is forcing the industry in this region to rethink the way we do business, the bottom line has shown hardly a ripple.
So far this year, for instance, newspapers and TV combined make up 89 percent of regional ad spend, with more than $5 billion between them. While Internet advertising in the region has grown by 55 percent between last year and 2007, it still only accounts for $29 million of total spend, a negligible amount.
This is not to downplay digital as a force in advertising, but I think the looming tower of technology often tends to obscure other, equally significant influencers. Such as demographics.
Instead of asking where the ad dollars will be going, maybe we should be asking where they will be coming from – that is, who clients will be targetting to get their revenue. One of the most important – and largest – demographics in the GCC is Young People with Money: There can hardly be a more telling phrase when exploring future trends in advertising and marketing. So which media is reaching them?
TV TOPS THE CHARTS. With an average of 96 percent reach across the GCC, it’s no surprise that television remains the medium of choice for both advertisers and audiences.
This is not to say that the status quo is getting things all its own way. The proliferation of media overall, as we all know, has led to the scourge of clutter, along with stunted attention spans among media consumers. Accordingly, clients are demanding more targeted messages, and more accurate measurement.
We have seen the launch of more and more niche publications and channels. When done well, these can really cut through – witness the success of MBC Action. And when it comes to proliferation and fragmentation, traditional media has it far easier than digital.
According to the Open Source Information Center, up to seven million Web sites are launched worldwide every day. Even if this figure is inflated, it still points to a very troubling trend for the medium.
For advertisers, it means that targeting becomes an impossibly complicated proposition; for site owners, it means ad revenue will be increasingly hard to come by.
So what we tend to see, as with other media, is advertisers going with the established names, and the smaller sites falling by the wayside.
My point is that digital will always be a single element in a much larger picture. TV, print and radio are still far ahead of online in terms of building recognition and trust among consumers, and they will remain so for a long time to come.
The key words for the next few years, in this region, are not hi-tech; they are placement, involvement, relevance.
So when asking where our ad dollars will go in 2008, we shouldn’t be exploring which medium will lose out to another, but which specific media product – out of thousands – will best suit an advertiser’s needs.
Next year and beyond, the winners will be those who make sense of the clutter and find the best venues for their messages and audiences.
Tell people stories they want to hear, online or off, and your advertising revenue will be well spent.
— Joseph Ghossoub is the world president of the IAA and CEO of The Holding Group. This article is adapted from his speech at the Media and Marketing Show in Dubai on November 12, 2007
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