There’s this old joke in Dubai. You meet people and ask them how long they’ve been here. The answers vary from three to thirteen to thirty years. When you ask them how long they plan to be here, nine out of 10 will say, “Just a couple of years more and then we’re going back.”
 
At this point, the eyes start rolling: “Been there, said that.”
 
Traditionally, Dubai’s competitive advantage has been that it offers a comfortable, international lifestyle with considerable savings at the end of every month. But between rising rents, increasing traffic and all the pitfalls that come with living in a large metropolitan city, a lot of people are starting to question whether the expats will continue to show up in droves.
 
Compound this with the fact that India, long the source of Dubai’s largest workforce, is on a steep growth path, offering increasing salaries and a better standard of living. One is left wondering if Dubai can maintain the appeal that once led media and advertising professionals from Mumbai and elsewhere to seek their fortunes abroad.
 
EAT YOUR WORDS. In the past, Dubai has always managed to silence the skeptics. Those who have questioned the sustainability of Dubai’s growth have had to eat their words, and they may have to keep doing so for some time.
 
Yet we are currently witnessing an interesting trend that is likely to have a far-reaching impact on Dubai’s demographics, and particularly on the pool of labor available to the media and advertising world.
 
Both Dubai and India are booming, but they appear to be booming in their own unique ways. The Dubai economy has always been strongly linked with that of India, and a large part of the emirate’s initial growth can be attributed to its strategic position as a transit between Europe and the Asian subcontinent. India, with its billion-plus population, has emerged as one of the most important global markets, and Dubai has established itself as the business capital of the Middle East.
 
But they appear to be drifting apart – albeit largely in a positive sense – as both carve out separate identities. It’s a slow, evolutionary process, but we are starting to see its effect onthe media and communication industries.
 
With India beginning to offer competitive savings potential and Dubai’s cost of living going through the roof, a new breed of professionals is entering the Dubai labor market. They are looking for long-term career opportunities in a high-growth, fast-changing region, even knowing fully well that the cost of living is high.
 
At the same time, agencies have seen a sharp drop in the volume of job applications from people mainly looking at the monetary side of life and work in Dubai. This means that while the number of CVs coming in for middle- to senior-level positions is dropping, the caliber of CVs received is getting better – and they are coming from all over the world, not just from the usual locations like India and Lebanon.
 
REVERSE SHOCK. We are also beginning to see a shake-up among long term residents who are questioning what they are still doing in Dubai when it’s getting more and more difficult to save.
 
Over the past two years, people expecting to save two and a half times what they did back home have become frustrated at their inability to do so.
 
Moreover, the few that are seriously considering going home are beginning to face a reverse shock. This is especially true with respect to India. With the UAE and India growing in separate directions, successful senior level people in Dubai suddenly find that there isn’t much demand, in the Indian advertising market, for the experience they bring to the table.
 
The flip side of this is that a few years in the Arab market (especially Saudi Arabia) counts for more than many years of experience outside the region.
 
We are in the midst of interesting times. Those who adapt will survive. Those who whine and complain about Dubai’s “good old days” might soon find themselves neither here nor there. A lot of people will need to wake up and take a conscious decision on where they would like to build their careers and their life: back home, or here? There might just be no going back on that decision.
 
— Jayanto Banerjee (“Banjo”), an Indian national who has lived in Dubai on and off for seven years, is general manager of Euro RSCG Dubai.