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It’s easy to say the world of publishing is in crisis. But it’s a big world.

Across the globe, every country and every publisher has its own set of unique circumstances. While there may be consolidation and closure in one place – even in many places – in another there is expansion and evolution. Communicate took a global view and found an industry in flux.
 
THE GOOD
Asia

In developing economies, the print industry is developing also. Hand in hand with improving education systems comes a more literate population; for India this means a growing audience for newspapers. Combine that with an expanding population (1.1 billion and counting), and the still marginal penetration of the Internet, and the recipe is set for growing readership. The Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry recorded a 7.6 percent growth in the print media industry in 2008. The projection between 2009 and 2013 is a growth of 12.5 percent per year.

In China, a new English version of The Global Times launched in April. It’s another developing market, where population expansion and economic development is also creating an expanded audience. In addition to this, the government is keen to promote a stronger Chinese media voice internationally, and has reportedly set aside up to 50 billion Yuan (over $7 billion) for this purpose.

In the more mature Japanese market, meanwhile, newspapers survive thanks to an elderly population who keep it afloat through loyal purchase (nearly one in five Japanese is aged 65 or older). As in many markets, advertising revenue has dropped, but titles are less reliant on this income thanks to high newsstand prices. However, in the longer term publishers recognize they can’t rely on this generation, so they are at the forefront of efforts to monetize their content for young people, who are disinclined to read print. Unlike many Western titles they have avoided putting all of their content online for free, and now three major titles – The Nihon Keizai Shimbun, The Asahi Shimbun and The Yomiuri Shimbun – have joined forces to experiment with delivery via new technology such as the iPhone.

THE BAD
Europe

Falling ad revenue has hit publishers and agencies across all sectors in Europe. Worse still, the market has reached maturity – there is a high concentration of print titles in almost all markets.

In the most competitive markets, such as the UK, local titles are suffering most. The cost of printing, combined with falling ad and classified revenues, has made many titles unviable. MEN Media, for example, publisher of Britain’s highest circulation regional title The Manchester Evening News, as well as 22 local weekly papers, has recently closed the editorial offices for every weekly publication, with the loss of 150 jobs. The titles will still run, but from the companies main office. It’s thought a prolonged recession could lead to numerous closures at a regional level across Europe.

For national titles the situation is generally better, but not always by much. A move to online models has been successful in terms of readership, but these papers have provided almost all their content online for free; a lack of profitability is often palpable. The most recent speculation surrounds the future of The Independent’s parent company Independent News and Media, which has total debts of 1.3 billion Euros ($1.7 million). Meanwhile, recent reports say that media mogul Rupert Murdoch is considering charging for access to News Corporation’s newspaper Web sites. The company’s newspaper division barely broke even in the most recent quarter, with profits down from $216 million to $7 million year-on-year. The company’s titles include The Times, The Sunday Times and The Sun.

It’s not all bad, though. Axel Springer AG, publisher of the Bild daily in Germany, the country’s largest circulation paper, posted its highest ever profit in 2008. The company attributes its success to early investment in the Internet. Meanwhile in France, most papers are aided by public subsidies, which ensures their continuation. And in Spain, while print media in general is suffering, free newspapers are proving extremely popular, with 20 Minutos now the most read title in the country. Incidentally, 20 Minutos is also the third most visited information Web site in Spain.

THE UGLY
America

Some people believe that ultimately, Europe is merely following the same road as the US. According to Paper Cuts, a website tracking industry changes in the US, in 2007, two titles ceased publication across the whole of the United States. In 2008, it was 55 titles; so far in 2009 the site reports 94 titles have closed or cut their print editions.

The industry is in such a state, that Warren Buffett, once a staunch supporter of newspapers as a business model, said in last month’s Berkshire Hathaway conference that he would not buy a newspaper “at any price.”

The symptom of this decline is almost always financial. There has been a dramatic fall in total US advertising revenue (16.6 percent in 2008) thanks to national economic difficulties. The situation has been exacerbated by declines in circulation, which is undermining advertising rates still further. The cause of this circulation collapse is a rapid shift in habits towards online consumption, encouraged – as in Europe – by many publishers’ decisions to put all their content online for free. All this has left numerous organizations on their knees; many of them plagued with high debts.

Big names caught up in the difficulties include The Rocky Mountain News, which, eclipsed by the Denver Post, finally shut down in February, after 150 years. The San Francisco Chronicle lost as much as $70 million last year, and it is possible the title will retreat to becoming just an online publication this year. The New York Times Company faces numerous difficulties, not the least of which is a reported $1.1 billion of debt at the end of 2008. These problems now threaten The New York Times’ long-term health, and more immediately The Boston Globe. In the face of an estimated potential loss of $85 million this year for the Globe, the NY Times Co set a deadline for the paper’s unions to make $20 million of concessions or they would pull the plug.

And the Tribune Company, which publishers both The Chicago Tribune and The LA Times, as well as owning 23 TV stations, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December.

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