COMMUNICOMPANIES AND COMMUNIQUESTIONS
Our first question to buyers was: How would you spend these budgets for these clients? What proportion would you give to different media (television, radio, outdoor, magazines, newspapers, etcetera), and are there any specific print publications, TV channels, Web sites, etcetera. that you would choose to focus on?
The companies we offered (we added the names later) were:
Communicommunities, a real estate company with $1 million to spend on marketing. It’s five years old, selling developments. It’s got some towers and projects under construction in Dubai, but it’s no newcomer, as some of its properties have already been built, and sold. It has a few developments in Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, but mostly it is Dubai-based.
Communicars, a car dealership with $2 million. It’s got showrooms throughout the UAE, selling a brand of mid-range Japanese cars. It’s been around for more than 10 years, and is family-run.
Communicameras, a multinational electronics company selling digital cameras with $3 million. It’s well known, and is multinational. It wants to sell throughout the GCC. It plans to launch three new categories of its flagship digital point-and-shoot cameras this year.
Communicola, a soft-drink manufacturer with $800,000. Again, a UAE company, this time a newcomer to the market. Locally owned, but only two years old. It’s got some awareness out there, but plays third fiddle to the likes of internationals such as Coca Cola and regional brands like Barbican. It sells throughout the GCC. (When asked by one buyer whether its drinks were healthy, we reluctantly agreed that the firm might make fruit juices, which we could pass off as at least healthier than high-sugar carbonated drinks. Which our fantasy company probably makes as well.)
We also asked buyers what they predict for media spend in the coming year. Which media channels will gain in percentage of spend, and which will lose out? Will people start moving money from print and television to below-the-line, digital and PR?
Who will the winners and losers be in the media? Will small TV stations close? What about magazines? Will there be consolidation, or will new channels open up to take advantage of niche markets?
Georges Naaman; general manager, MPG
Communicommunities: Since the real estate situation is quite foggy at the moment, we will try to differentiate ourselves from the normal activities. Attracting serious shoppers is the objective; interactive media is the strategy.
Online: 40%
Events: 40%
Direct mailing: 10%
Mobile activities: 10%
Communicars:
Newspapers: 30%
Outdoor: 40%
Radio: 10%
Online: 20%
Communicameras: Television spend will go on Pan-Arab free-to-air and cable stations. Online spend will be on banners to drive trial/purchase. We’ll also advertise in lifestyle magazines.
TV: 50%
Online: 30%
Magazines: 20%
Communicola: Here we’d spend on spots and sponsorship on Pan-Arab free-to-air television.
TV: 100%
What do you predict for media spend in the coming year?
The approach for next year will be focus. Clients and agencies will be highly sensitive to return on investment. We want to be as close as we can to the consumers. Accordingly, we will use new media such as online, mobile marketing , events, PR and promotions.
Who will the winners and losers be in the media?
Definitely small TV stations will suffer more and more. We will witness the vanishing of many small magazines. The focus will be on pillars of the media, in TV and magazines.
Hassan Shoker; buying manager, Mindshare
Communicommunities:
Considering the budget in hand, focus should be on the UAE’s local media (newspaper, magazines, radio, and outdoor).
Communicars:
Again my recommendation is to look at local media, assuming that the brand has corporate support on television for the whole Middle East region. Newspapers, magazines and radio are highly effective because in such a category detailed information is important in communicating the product benefits and this media can help in doing so. Online is also highly important.
Communicameras:
I recommend television and outdoor in strategic locations. Television helps in regional coverage. Outdoor is recommended when it is used as the relevant medium at the right time.
Communicola:
Given that this company is in the brand-building stage, and given limited budget, the focus will be on television, which will deliver on the objectives and help in maximizing return on investment through focus and concentration of the message.
What is going to happen with media spend in the coming year?
Definitely there will be a drop in media spend, but it depends on the category. … There will be a drop for real estate.
Digital and PR will get a big share of advertising next year, because it will be cost-effective for clients, especially digital media.
What is happening now will give a big push to big advertisers to go to digital, as it will be cost-effective for them.
Who will the winners and losers be?
Definitely television stations will lose, because television is the most expensive medium to advertise on, more than magazines, than newspapers and even than outdoor. But advertising on television will be more effective because television advertising will be less cluttered.
There will definitely be a drop in outdoor as well, as outdoor, from a media perspective, is only targeting people in certain areas.
Will your role as a buyer change?
In Mindshare now we have a new structure and a new role, business planning. We are no longer the supplier for our clients, and the client is no longer a client to us; we are a division of their marketing team.
Will advertising become less strategic and more tactical?
Real estate was always more tactical than strategic. Because in real estate you don’t have to have strategic plans to reach your target. It was very straightforward with tactical campaigns. Now you might have a bigger space to be more strategic than tactical, because the space won’t be as cluttered. So you will have more chance to be more creative, and to use different strategic plans to hit your target.
Amer El Hajj; regional media buying director, Publicis Groupe Media
Communicommunities: I definitely recommend PR, CRM (customer relationship management) and online without going into conventional media, because, in the end, for any campaign – in print, on television, wherever – you need more than that to cut through the clutter that exists in the market.
And online will help, because online is the cheapest medium in the market.
PR (not events) and CRM: 70%
Digital: 30% (to target the UAE and Saudi Arabia)
Communicars: If you have some new launches, because you are focusing on the UAE, you might focus on cinema, because cinema rates will not increase, although people will get more conscientious about their spending [on cinema outings]. Radio is another way you can communicate to create footfall. The problem with radio is that it’s very cluttered, but radio will do the job if the ad is attractive or the message is attractive. And knowing it’s a car company, you have to be in newspapers as well.
Cinema:15% (to geotarget UAE)
Radio: 20%
Newspapers: 50%
Online: 15%
Communicameras:
Magazines: 30%
Cinema: 10%
TV: 45%
Online: 15%
Communicola: Because it’s a UAE marketer selling throughout the GCC, television is definitely needed. But with $800,000… If it’s a fruit drink, then you can put yourself in the health sections of some magazines, and on radio you can take some sponsorships when they are talking about health.
TV: 50%
Magazines: 30%
Radio: 20%
What do you predict for media spend?
Outdoor is going to go down big-time. We have heard that outdoor suppliers won’t decrease their rates, and suppliers will have to obey the rules of the RTA (Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority). They are going to lose from their own pockets or keep the rates as they are. The space will be available, and demand won’t be as high as in 2006, 2007 or 2008. So it will be the least-recommended channel for any client. Unless you get hoardings for the price of a unipole, like we’ve been seeing recently. Outdoor suppliers will be very flexible this year.
Newspaper is definitely going to be affected. Most publications aren’t increasing their rates. You used to get a rate of inflation of about 25 percent, but this year I guess it will not exceed 7 percent.
Television could rise, I guess. But as a planner, if you have to geotarget each market your CPM (cost per thousand) will be much higher than with one medium – television – that covers all markets.
Digital, of course, is going to grow. And radio should grow slightly. Magazines – especially social and family magazines – rely more on fashion and luxury brands. Luxury brands will maintain their budgets, or there might be some small changes in April 2009 (because every year the first quarter is very slow).
Most clients have either maintained their budgets at last year’s rates, or have decreased them by as much as 60 percent for real-estate companies.
FMCGs say they are going to maintain all their rates. Luxury brands might increase by 10 percent or keep flat.
What will happen to media?
You have a lot of clients like P&G, like Unilever, like all these big clients, who will never stop supporting small television stations. And these small stations mainly get their budgets out of these clients. They have a strategy to support everyone as long as they have the budget, as these stations might have potential to grow.
We are already witnessing some magazines vanishing from the market. So definitely those who are not strong enough in the market are going to close, and a lot of media houses that were thinking of entering the market recently changed their plans.
If you are barely able to support the conventional titles you are already using in the market, there is no way to introduce more titles into your media plans. There’s not enough budget.
I don’t think we will see anything change in the magazines that are well known and have their own readership. Every year we used to hear of more than 50 titles entering the market. Now I don’t think this will happen, unless there is a new publisher crazy enough to venture into this situation.
Will the whole region be affected?
Based on our readings and our monitoring, we think that Qatar will not be affected. Abu Dhabi and Bahrain will be affected slightly. Saudi Arabia won’t have a major problem because Saudi Arabia doesn’t have big projects like Dubai. These markets may have some small titles that will survive.
Wael Jamal; regional director, Mediacom
Communicommunities: the message should be a call for action. There’s no need for branding, since it’s already established. Aside from advertising, direct sales is also a must.
Online: 30% (on business Web sites)
Newspapers: 70% (Local papers, since the company is mainly targeting Dubai)
Communicars: Since it is a mass-market and affordable car, then communicate to the masses via dailies, cinemas to catch husbands and wives together, and family/women’s interest Web sites
Newspapers: 60%
Cinema: 20%
Online: 20 %
Communicameras: Newspapers for promotional activities/offers/discounts
Online: 20% (tourist Web sites)
TV: 60% (to cover the whole GCC)
Newspapers: 20% (for promotional activities, offers and discounts)
Communicola:
Television: 100% in the form of sponsorship, limited to the top two movie channels. Why? The budget is too small, therefore television will do two main jobs: It will increase awareness, call for action and branding by repetition (sponsorships). It will also cover the region with the lowest CPM. If budget permits, then I recommend outdoor, cinema and online.
What do you predict for media spend in the coming year?
We are assuming a drop of between 20 percent and 35 percent on media spend from traditional, non-real-estate clients, whereas real estate will be dropping by 80 percent to 100 percent, at least in the first quarter of 2009.
Moreover, money will most probably shift from print and out-of-home to online, unless these media undertake a dramatic price revision and rationalize their unreasonable costs (especially outdoors). Television, however, is a key player that will remain there.
We believe this is the time where the best-performing media will survive.
Yves-Michel Gabay, international business and development director, Mediaedge CIA
Communicommunities: If the objective is a maintenance campaign to sell units all year long, the media mix would be this:
Newspapers: 70% (In the main English and Arabic titles covering Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as a half page on a specific page once or twice a week, with an on-off burst system.)
Radio: 15% (On the main UAE stations to activate the beginning of each burst.)
Online : 15% (To cover the UAE and Saudi Arabia with mass Web sites in both English and Arabic – Yahoo, MSN Arabia, Maktoob – and in the property and classfied sections of Web sites like GN4U and Dubizzle, as well as some key words on Google and other big search engines. All linked to the developer’s Web sites. ?
Communicars: Assuming the brand is taking care of the image/corporate/model campaigns (on television, outdoor, magazines, and online), here the objective will be to create traffic to showrooms. It means we will follow a promotional calendar edited by the car dealer and would recommend the dealer take advantage of the online campaign done by the brand by linking their own Web site to the banners in order to create a database for test drive registration.
Newspapers: 60% (In the main English and Arabic titles covering Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Full-page, followed by half-pages for one week at the start of each promotional campaign.)
Radio: 20% (We will run a promotional campaign during the same periods on the main UAE radio stations during drivetime from Tuesday to Friday to activate traffic to showrooms during the weekends.)
On-ground activation: 20% (Create some stands with one or two cars in the main shopping malls across the UAE, in order to create appealing mini-showrooms and redirect traffic to the main showroom for test drives.
Communicameras:
TV: 50% (All main general-interest Pan-Arab stations and some Pan-Asian. One big burst per product, with a GRP (gross rating point) target of at least 1000 for each.
Magazines: 20% (One burst for each product in the main lifestyle magazines (English and Arabic) with special operations like Mediaedge CIA did for Canon.)
Online: 15% (Banners and special operations on the big regional portals and on community Web sites, and on specific Web sites dedicated to photo sharing.
On-ground activation: 15% (Creation of “photo studios” in the main malls, where people will be able to make and print a picture of themselves with a funny background using the cameras.)
Communicola: ?
Television: 45% (Focus on youth-interest or local channels using billboards or short-format five-second spots to reach a high level of frequency. Put these around series on MBC Action or MBC 4, or musical programs on Dubai TV, Sama Dubai, MTV to create awareness among the larger public.)
Online: 20% (On community or exchange Web sites (Facebook, MSN Arabia, Mumtazz, Ikbis, etcetera), create links or contests or sponsor chat areas to create proximity with youth across the GCC. Online will need a highly creative platform to differentiate it from its competitors.)
Cinema: 20% (A classic campaign of spot buys plus activation in the foyer in the form of sampling and decoration.)
Radio: 15% (A trial campaign on the youth radio stations during the night, when young people are driving out to go to parties or clubs.)
What do you predict for media spend in the coming year?
The first half will be difficult; advertisers will be very cautious and will wait at least until the end of the first quarter to check the market’s reaction. The second half should be better with Ramadan and Eid festivities, and so on. We should achieve the same level of spend as 2008, but not more.
Print, in the form of newspapers, magazines and outdoor, should decrease strongly, as it feels the impact of the real estate decrease.
Television should remain stable because the FMCG brands will continue to invest since consumers will continue to buy their goods, and FMCGs are mainly focused on television.
Expect an increase in online, which is still growing in the region and is getting far from its natural share of expenditure compared to Western countries. This is the only really accountable media in the region where you pay only for real contact, and you can monitor it very well.
The same goes for below-the-line (BTL) and on-ground activation, events and sponsorship, because this the best way to actively engage with consumers and lead to sales.
So I predict a move from print to online, BTL and on-ground activation.
Who will the winners and losers be in the media?
Newspapers will be the big loser. There is too much clutter, they are too expensive and have an older, mostly male readership.
We can predict the small media will close and the big will stay, but I think it’s more a question of relevance. If you have a small TV channel or magazine very well done and very relevant, it will keep its viewership or readership, so advertisers will continue to invest in it.
We could see both consolidation and creation. Some big player could launch a new, small communication channel to take advantage of a niche, and in the meantime consolidate with the rest of its portfolio.
If advertiser can find power (in reach and penetration) and affinity with the same media supplier, he will choose this one to concentrate his investments in, to get more discounts and advantages.